37.6%. That is Mercadona’s market share in Spain. But the king is slowing down. Meanwhile, Carrefour, the number two, is in a free fall, ceding share to end up at 11.5%.
Yes, the big weekly shop is dead.
Let’s look at Juan. He is a normal worker in Madrid. Since 2022, food prices went up more than 30% in Spain. Juan does not have extra cash. In the past, Juan drove to a big hypermarket once a week. He filled his car trunk. Not anymore. Juan does not want to waste fuel or food. Now, he walks. He makes quick, small trips. In Madrid, the average basket has dropped to just 10.5 units. Juan splits his money. He buys fresh food at Consum, grabs cheap chocolates at Lidl, and runs to Dia for daily bread. The big organized retailers are losing because Juan changed his life.
My retail friend asked me: “Is Mercadona finally bleeding?” My answer: No. This is a temporary pause. Mercadona is doing a massive remodeling to their “T9 Model”. Juan Roig, their boss, is spending €3,700 million on this until 2033. They are removing traditional assisted counters to build central prep hubs called “Obrador Central”. Remodeling closes stores temporarily. That is why they lost a tiny bit of share. But look at the data when a T9 store opens:
- Average tickets are 10% higher.
- Total sales grow by 3%.
- In their Murcia store, tickets are 6% above average.
- It saves 10% energy and 40% water.
Mercadona had a record 2025 with €41,858 million in sales and €1,729 million in net profit. They have zero bank debt and €7,307 million in cash. They are not bleeding; they are rebuilding.
But while they rebuild, the door is open. Competitors are rushing in. Lidl has climbed to 8.3% share. They are opening 50 stores this year. They bought a massive 185,000 sqm plot in Constantí (Tarragona) and are opening Martorell. They also locked in a 15% wage increase until 2030 to keep their workers happy. Aldi is doing the same, adding 40 stores in 2026 to reach 536 supermarkets.
Regional kings are also defending their turf. Take Catalonia. Households spend €4,004 a year on food – he highest in Spain. Bon Preu, led by Joan Font, holds a 14.2% regional share. They grew their sales by 7.9% to reach €2,611.5 million in 2025. How do they fight Mercadona? They adapt fast.
- They copied Mercadona’s pre-packaged fresh fish model. They prep it daily and package it so shoppers save time.
- They bought the old Danone factory in Parets del Vallès for €30 million to build an automated online hub by late 2027.
In Valencia, Consum is a beast. They reached a record €5,163.6 million in sales. They shared €128.7 million in profits and bonuses with their workers. In Galicia, northern families visit supermarkets 175 times a year—the highest frequency in the country. Froiz is winning there (+0.7%) because they kept traditional service counters. They hit €970 million in sales.
We also have Dia. After 7 years of losses, they turned it around with a €129 million net profit in 2025. Why? Proximity. They sold non-core brands and focused on their neighborhood franchise model. Meanwhile, regional giant Ahorramas in Madrid is facing a margin squeeze. Their sales reached €2,422 million, but profit fell 13.8% to €109 million. They spent €92 million on CAPEX and had to absorb huge wage increases. This is the real cost of growth.
In my consulting sessions, I tell my clients three things:
- Retailers: Cut the Queues. Kill service queues. Stop fighting for the “big basket”. Fight for the daily trip.
- FMCG Brands: Stop Using One National Plan. Spain is highly fragmented. Catalonia spends €4,004/year on food; Madrid spends €3,488. Madrid shoppers buy tiny baskets of 10.5 units; Andalusians visit stores less but buy 12.5 units per trip. Customize your packaging and logistics to fit these regional habits.
- The Private Label Wall: Private label value share is at 45.6%. If your brand is just “middle of the road,” you will get pushed off the shelves. You must either innovate on unique health/niche benefits or pivot to supply private label for these fast-growing discounters.
Size is no longer a shield. Speed, local execution, and capital efficiency are the only things that save you.
How is your company adapting to the death of the big weekly shop? If you need an audit of your regional distribution or commercial strategy, DM me. Let’s talk.
Source: Algori
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