Marketplace Take Rate Escalation vs AI Infrastructure Dependency Risk

Amazon takes more than 50% of third-party seller revenue today. Five years ago, it was 40%. Sellers did not get worse at business. Amazon simply raised fulfillment fees and made paid ads unavoidable.

Many founders jumping into AI startups and vibe coding are walking into the exact same trap.

I do vibe coding myself. I built several internal tools for my daily work and saved hundreds of dollars on software subscriptions. It works well. But we need to separate useful personal tools from a defensible company.

If your product is just a wrapper around an API, you do not own a business. The model provider does.

A founder recently asked for my opinion on scaling his new AI workflow tool. I asked him a simple question: “What happens to your cash flow if your provider raises token prices by 70% or releases your main feature for free next month?”

He had no answer.

Unless you own physical servers, direct power contracts, and cooling capacity, you are building on rented land.

It is the exact same dynamic I see when consulting FMCG and retail brands on their channel strategy:

– Marketplace trap: Sell only on Amazon, and Amazon owns the customer, the ranking, and your margin.

– AI wrapper trap: Build only on external APIs, and the model owner controls your product lifespan and your cost structure.

What comes next with AI pricing? The standard platform playbook:

1. Low prices and subsidies to grab market share.
2. Price increases once switching costs get high.
3. Market split: basic, restricted models for everyone, expensive premium models for real work.

Digital inequality is shifting. It is no longer about who owns a computer or an internet connection. It is about who can afford top-tier compute. Soon, people will brag about their private AI model tier the way they used to brag about luxury phones.

If you run a retail or FMCG brand, use AI to cut internal costs today. But never outsource your core customer relationship or proprietary data to a platform you cannot control.

Look at your numbers this week: who actually owns your business?

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